Technical signals on AI & semiconductor stocks
Fourteen deterministic signals replayed over five years of history: 73,230 occurrences across 230 companies, from 2021-09-23 to 2026-11-06. Entry at the close of the signal, exit k sessions later, no fees or slippage, excess measured against the SMH sector ETF.
What each signal returned
- Broke below the 50-day MA (bearish): 9269 occurrences, +0.6% average return after 5 sessions, +1.8% after 20, 50% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- Reclaimed the 50-day MA (bullish): 9175 occurrences, +0.4% average return after 5 sessions, +2.5% after 20, 51% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- Volume spike (≥ 2.5× average) (bullish): 8062 occurrences, +1.5% average return after 5 sessions, +5.7% after 20, 54% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- Big move up (≥ 8%) (bullish): 7700 occurrences, +0.7% average return after 5 sessions, +5.9% after 20, 49% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- 52-week high (bullish): 6717 occurrences, +0.6% average return after 5 sessions, +4.3% after 20, 58% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- Big move down (≥ 8%) (bearish): 6328 occurrences, +2.7% average return after 5 sessions, +5.9% after 20, 50% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- Gap up at the open (≥ 5%) (bullish): 5666 occurrences, +0.9% average return after 5 sessions, +5.8% after 20, 50% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- RSI overbought (≥ 70) (bearish): 5426 occurrences, +0.9% average return after 5 sessions, +3.8% after 20, 45% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- Gap down at the open (≥ 5%) (bearish): 4318 occurrences, +1.9% average return after 5 sessions, +4.6% after 20, 49% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- 20-day high breakout (bullish): 4101 occurrences, +0.8% average return after 5 sessions, +5.5% after 20, 54% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- RSI oversold (≤ 30) (bullish): 3037 occurrences, +1.3% average return after 5 sessions, +3.5% after 20, 58% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- 52-week low (bearish): 2003 occurrences, +1.0% average return after 5 sessions, +6.0% after 20, 40% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- Golden cross (50-day / 200-day MA) (bullish): 738 occurrences, +1.2% average return after 5 sessions, +3.0% after 20, 53% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.
- Death cross (50-day / 200-day MA) (bearish): 690 occurrences, +0.6% average return after 5 sessions, +3.5% after 20, 45% in the signal's direction at 20 sessions.